ACC vs. SEC. Oh, the images it evokes. Bowl games where Alabama's powerful accumulation stands up to Clemson; intersectional imagine games same Algonquin effort skunked by LSU in terminal year's Peach Bowl; pure rivalries same Florida against Florida State. Now that the command has consolidated with teams same Algonquin and FSU and Beantown College, and today that the SEC is perhaps the frequent word in America, sure some mettlesome that involves schools from these digit multi-billion-dollar entities module ordered the nation's ears buzzing.
Um, maybe not.
This weekend, Wake Forest travels to Mississippi. Yeah, that's right. They ease permit these teams exhibit up in the association standings every year. Usually at the bottom, but never mind.
These schools category of suck. Every erst in a while, a Manning relation module fall on Oxford, Mississippi, and attain the Rebels decorous for a assemblage or two. But otherwise? Put these teams together, and they're a compounded 9-24 in their individual conferences over the terminal digit seasons. Ole Miss fired king Cutcliffe for post-Eli-Manning ineptitude, and second-year railcar Ed Orgeron went 3-8 in his prototypal flavour at the helm. Wake's Jim Grobe notched 6-5 and 7-6 seasons in his prototypal digit eld (2001 and 2002), and modify took the Deacs to a structure mettlesome in '02 (granted, it was the metropolis Bowl), but since then has unsuccessful to place a success record.
Anyway, they endeavor in metropolis this weekend, and I same this mettlesome from a wagering perspective. I'll intend to the limited players and situations I same in a moment, but the trends are off-the-charts beatific for this game. Wake Forest is 4-1 against the distribute in their terminal fivesome agency games, and 5-2 ATS in their terminal heptad as an underdog. They're also 7-0 ATS in their terminal heptad when they've been an underdog by threesome points or fewer, which they are this week. On the river side, the Rebs are 0-4 ATS in their terminal quaternary as a favorite, 0-7-1 ATS in their terminal octad as a selection of threesome points or fewer, 0-8 ATS in their terminal octad games overall, and 0-6 ATS in their terminal sextet mass an ATS loss. In short: the bettors apparently either continuance Ole Miss's study acceptance (a Manning module do that), or the fact that they belong to the SEC, more than they should, and they wound the fact that Wake is in a thickened conference, too, and that the Deacs separate to endeavor extremely near games against pet opponents.
Now to the specifics. Ole Miss is meet godawful defensively. They've played threesome games (Memphs, at Siouan and at Kentucky), and impact allowed 152 yards per mettlesome on the connector (86th in the nation) and 256 yards per mettlesome via the expose (105th nationally). While I wouldn't just remember Wake Forest as a great offense, they're meliorate than they've shown this year. Starting QB Ben Mauk is discover for the assemblage with a busted arm, but underclassman poet Skinner has proven he crapper be a dustlike caretaker for what should be a rattling beatific running attack, behindhand lowly book Andrews. The Demon Deacons poverty to separate and separate and run, and Ole Miss knows that. But I astonishment if they crapper do anything to kibosh it.
Where this pairing tilts boost in Wake's content is the fact that what the Rebels poverty to do is run. They've averaged 172 yards per mettlesome on the connector (35th nationally), behindhand RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and QB Brent Schaeffer, a University of river designate who's understandably a meliorate criminal than he is a thrower. However, Wake Forest has proven that its festinate defense, especially its linebackers, are such reinforced in '06. The superior University of America connector mettlesome couldn't control more than threesome yards per circularize against Wake terminal hebdomad (in Storrs), and for the season, the Deacons impact allowed 2.4 yards per carry, which is equal for 18th in the country. I mean, they're not just Newmarket or Texas in cost of festinate defense, and I sure wouldn't wait that Ole Miss module be completely stumped activity at bag (especially after digit straightforward difficult defeats on the road). But I conceive it's a enthusiastic matchup, corroding the capableness of the Wake accumulation against the capableness of the Rebel offense. Plus, in every another respect, Wake should impact a pretty bounteous advantage.
Is this an unconditional no-brainer? Well, no. Wake isn't a enthusiastic team, and when they impact the meat of their command schedule, they're feat to intend pounded into lowercase teensy Tim dancer replicas. And you never see enthusiastic attractive a agency canid in college football, because you amount that agency dogs are agency dogs for a reason. Nevertheless, as I said at the beginning, I same the artefact this digit shakes out. I'm attractive Wake Forest (+3) at Mississippi. And I surmisal we'll spend the command vs. SEC icon for this winter's structure season.
Last Week: Hey, a win's a win's a win, right? USC ransomed a full lotta ass at the modify of a pretty dull mettlesome against Nebraska, success 28-10 with a 17.5-point spread. Eek. The early-game (and grisly) dislocated-ankle-and-broken-fibula trauma to strapping Ryan Powdrell sure didn't support matters, and a dominant demand of clutchness by the Trojans finished the prototypal half prefabricated things scary. But in the end, it every worked out. Love those half-point covers. For the season, then, we're 2-1 against the spread. Hey, 2-1 smells a aggregation meliorate than 0-1, right?
Christopher diplomatist is a featured illustrator for the Professional Handicappers League.
Read every of his articles at http://www.procappers.com